Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

June's Durable Goods Orders report will start this week’s activities with an 8:30 AM ET release tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.6% from May's orders. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. Examples are airplanes, appliances and electronics. Much stronger than expected orders would be bad news for rates. However, this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a moderate difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move the markets or mortgage rates like it would if it came in other reports.

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The first of this week's two Treasury auctions that we will be watching is also happening tomorrow. 5-year Notes will be sold tomorrow, followed by 7-year Notes Tuesday. Results of each day's sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, making these afternoon events for rates. Strong demand for the securities could help boost the broader bond market after the results are posted, possibly leading to a minor improvement to mortgage pricing. These are shorter-term securities than those sold the past two weeks, so we likely will see a minimal impact on rates because mortgage pricing is based on long-term debt.

Medium

Positive

Iran War Headlines

Headlines this weekend said military action between Iran and the U.S. appear to have paused since talks between them reportedly are moving in the right direction. This is allowing for oil prices to drop in trading. This eases inflation concerns, assuming the pause stays in place, and could allow for an improvement in mortgage rates tomorrow morning if bond gains hold through overnight trading.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

Next up will be the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July late Tuesday morning. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up such a big portion of our economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning consumers were less confident than analysts thought and likely will delay making a sizable personal purchase, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Tuesday morning. Current forecasts show 92.1, which would be an increase from June's 91.2. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Wednesday doesn’t have any economic data that we will need to be concerned with, although it does bring us the FOMC meeting adjournment during afternoon trading. There is a consensus that the Fed will leave key short-term rates unchanged at this meeting. However, there is more of a chance of a rate hike at this meeting, or at least a signal from them that one is coming soon, than there has been in quite time. Recent inflation data has been cooperative in terms of the direction it moved, but still remains well above the Fed’s preferred annual pace of 2.0%. This month’s flare up of the war with Iran has pushed oil prices higher, leading to an increase in costs at the gas pump that has reignited inflation concerns going forward. These factors could be used as justification for the Fed to bump key rates higher to help bring inflation down faster.

The FOMC meeting adjournment and the Fed’s official statement release will occur at 2:00 PM ET, while the press conference with Chairman Warsh will start at 2:30 PM ET. We always have to assume there will be afternoon volatility in the financial and mortgage markets on days such as Wednesday. Just how much volatility and the direction it will push mortgage rates depends on what traders take away from the statement and press conference. This meeting does not offer us revised economic projections or the so-called dot plot.

High

Unknown

Personal Income and Outlays

After the highly important FOMC meeting ends, we then will get the week’s extremely influential economic data. Thursday has three economic reports set for release, all at 8:30 AM. In addition to the weekly unemployment update, we will get June's Personal Income and Outlays report and the initial 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The income and outlays report is predicted to show a 0.3% rise in income and an increase of 0.4% in spending. Rising income means consumers have more money to spend, fueling economic growth. However, what makes this release so important to the markets are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes in it. These are the Fed's preferred inflation readings and draw plenty of attention. The overall PCE is expected to rise for the month as is the more closely watched core PCE. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates will be smaller than expected increases, particularly in the annual PCE readings. Stronger inflation figures will likely lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Thursday.

High

Unknown

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Thursday’s second highly important release is the preliminary reading of the 2nd GDP reading. This index is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or contraction. It is the total of all goods and services that are produced in the U.S. and usually has a strong impact on the financial markets. Current forecasts estimate the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% during the April through June months after a 2.1% pace over the first three months. A stronger GDP number would be bad news for rates since it would mean the economy was stronger than thought. A much weaker growth rate would be very good news and could fuel a sizable improvement in rates.

Medium

Unknown

Employment Cost Index (Quarterly)

Friday will close this week’s calendar with two moderately important economic reports. First will be the release of the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) at 8:30 AM ET that tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This release will give us a measurement of wage-inflation that makes long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, less attractive to investors. A large increase in labor costs raises concerns that employers will need to pass them onto consumers in the pricing of their products and services. A smaller increase than the expected 0.8% would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

July's revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is set to be posted late Friday morning. This is another consumer optimism reading about their own personal financial situations. It is considered relevant because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending, adding fuel to economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. Friday's release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 54.4, the markets will probably have little reaction to this data.

Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates due to the FOMC meeting, but Thursday's two major reports could bring a big move in rates that day also. Friday is the best candidate for calmest day. There is no doubt that we will see plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Therefore, please keep an eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Durable Goods Orders

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Iran War Headlines

Consumer Confidence Index

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Personal Income and Outlays

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Employment Cost Index (Quarterly)

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

Float / Lock Recommendation